Will Drake release a new album by December 31?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 87¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$3.2K
$154.32
73.3¢ → 87¢
+19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 79.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$74.27 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
SH shovelingdigging | Noavg 65.8¢ | $946.73 | $1.3K | +$305.44 | 60% 314-210 (524) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 27.9¢ | $474.73 | $221.45 | -$253.27 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 2B9S | Noavg 72.3¢ | $165.86 | $182.14 | +$16.28 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 75.1¢ | $68.74 | $72.76 | +$4.02 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $17.05 | $24.63 | +$7.58 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
Invested
$1,404.61
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$74.27
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
Invested
$946.73
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$305.44
Record
60%
314-210 (524)
Invested
$474.73
Value
$221.45
PnL
-$253.27
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
2B9SInvested
$165.86
Value
$182.14
PnL
+$16.28
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$68.74
Value
$72.76
PnL
+$4.02
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$17.05
Value
$24.63
PnL
+$7.58
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.