Consensus PnL $52K · win rate 63% (337–199, n=536) · PM monthly #928 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$52.4K
Record
337W / 199L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 536 settled
Batting Avg
54.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1014
Source
PM monthly #928
Trades
665
Markets
682
Volume
$346.5K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?Yes $6.3K · now 88¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- No one announced as next James Bond?No $6.3K · now 83¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (62% of 21)
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes $5.7K · now 56¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (58% of 19)
- Will Drake release a new album by December 31?No $1.3K · now 87¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
Specialties
594 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 54¢- Entertainment
+7 pts
side won 62% of 333 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +5%
- NFL
+11 pts
side won 60% of 48 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +12%
- Finance
+9 pts
side won 44% of 27 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +16%
Weakest: Other Sports — held side won 20% of 20 at an average 44¢ entry (−24 pts against the price), ROI −33%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 15% of 116)
- 30–50¢: 24%(won 45% of 142)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 69% of 160)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 89% of 176)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.