Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (78%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 23¢ · $4K held · ended Sep 20
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 33%
$3.9K
$-1.4K
46.5¢ → 22.5¢
-52% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1310h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
34 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA Railcool | Yesavg 61.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$260.8 | 51% 86-81 (167) |
 paddaaCTR | Noavg 46.5¢ | $2.5K | $1.2K | $-1.4K | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
 rabbit007 | Yesavg 63.4¢ | $609.85 | $745.26 | +$135.41 | 53% 355-309 (664) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 47¢ | $1.7K | $353.43 | -$163.45 | 55% 463-373 (836) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 46.7¢ | $536.02 | $239.04 | -$296.98 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 Jellow2 | Yesavg 72¢ | $104.33 | $112.3 | +$8.69 | 64% 299-169 (468) |
Invested
$1,063.96
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$260.8
Record
51%
86-81 (167)
paddaaCTRInvested
$2,532.01
Value
$1.2K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
rabbit007Invested
$609.85
Value
$745.26
PnL
+$135.41
Record
53%
355-309 (664)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$1,680.18
Value
$353.43
PnL
-$163.45
Record
55%
463-373 (836)
Invested
$536.02
Value
$239.04
PnL
-$296.98
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Jellow2Invested
$104.33
Value
$112.3
PnL
+$8.69
Record
64%
299-169 (468)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.