Consensus PnL $133K · win rate 68% (191–91, n=282) · PM monthly #617 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$133.4K
Record
191W / 91L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 282 settled
Batting Avg
50.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#826
Source
PM monthly #617 + pinned
Trades
17,350
Markets
558
Volume
$3.3M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 12 on the consensus side (92%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $92K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $29K · now 95¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $11K · now 72¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $9.3K · now 70¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.5K · now 71¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $2.9K · now 68¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (52% of 58)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $475 · now 74¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $219 · now 73¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (61% of 41)
Specialties
467 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 68¢- Elections
+6 pts
side won 64% of 163 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+8 pts
side won 86% of 43 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +9%
- Tech
+6 pts
side won 67% of 12 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 66% of 38 at an average 71¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 13% of 76)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 41% of 41)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 61% of 70)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 93% of 280)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.