Consensus PnL $125K · win rate 54% (88–74, n=162) · PM monthly #701 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$125.1K
Record
88W / 74L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 162 settled
Batting Avg
70.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1527
Source
PM monthly #701
Trades
298
Markets
207
Volume
$685.0K
Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 16 on the consensus side (63%)- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $15K · now 53¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No $15K · now 74¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (63% of 32)
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes $13K · now 90¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (73% of 15)
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $13K · now 26¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $8.1K · now 40¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (83% of 42)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes $4.9K · now 33¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (76% of 38)
- Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No $3.7K · now 26¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.6K · now 27¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (63% of 31)
Specialties
92 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 55¢- Elections
+25 pts
side won 79% of 34 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +37%
- Entertainment
+17 pts
side won 77% of 48 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +25%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 38% of 26)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 56% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 90% of 21)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 97% of 36)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.