Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 4.8¢ · $4K held · ends Jun 7, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Mon, Jun 7, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Entry

32.3¢ → 4.8¢

-85% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,445

Combined PnL+$725.12

Yes3 traders

Total Value$602.53

Total Shares14,696

Combined PnL$-4.2K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

1135h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

52 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
archaic	Noavg 89¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$151.77	85% 1906-339 (2245)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 50.9¢	$614.17	$1.1K	+$533.47	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
GohstCTR	Yesavg 38.4¢	$4.1K	$438.53	$-3.7K	49% 738-770 (1508)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$420	$82	-$345	36% 397-691 (1088)
0x8712CTR	Yesavg 11¢	$220	$82	-$145	30% 102-237 (339)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 30.4¢	$17.75	$57.64	+$39.88	53% 6689-5886 (12575)

archaic

Invested

$1,947.12

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$151.77

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$614.17

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$533.47

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

GohstCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,103.62

Value

$438.53

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$420

Value

$82

PnL

-$345

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

0x8712CTR

Yes

Invested

$220

Value

$82

PnL

-$145

Record

30%

102-237 (339)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$17.75

Value

$57.64

PnL

+$39.88

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

1135h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

52 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.0%

4.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1575.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

1675.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.