Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 October 26-November 1?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 92¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$11.4K
-$215.44
91.6¢ → 92¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 91.7¢ | $9.2K | $9.3K | -$222.61 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
EN En11006 | Noavg 91¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$27.5 | 57% 30-23 (53) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $622.22 | $671.5 | +$91.28 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 5.7¢ | $179.1 | $330.3 | +$151.2 | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
 PippiTraderCTR | Yesavg 43.9¢ | $356.22 | $81.19 | -$270.97 | 61% 313-200 (513) |
GE getbippedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $13.52 | $21.68 | +$8.15 | 49% 208-213 (421) |
Invested
$9,238.21
Value
$9.3K
PnL
-$222.61
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Invested
$1,000.98
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$27.5
Record
57%
30-23 (53)
Invested
$622.22
Value
$671.5
PnL
+$91.28
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
Invested
$179.1
Value
$330.3
PnL
+$151.2
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$356.22
Value
$81.19
PnL
-$270.97
Record
61%
313-200 (513)
Invested
$13.52
Value
$21.68
PnL
+$8.15
Record
49%
208-213 (421)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.