Will Ethereum reach $2,600 October 26-November 1?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$32.7K
$1.6K
94.9¢ → 100¢
+5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
72h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93¢ | $17.7K | $19.0K | +$1.3K | 66% 2460-1291 (3751) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 96.9¢ | $7.4K | $7.6K | +$218.72 | 49% 208-213 (421) |
 Facaie | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$3.38 | 93% 1314-105 (1419) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$23.2 | 76% 279-86 (365) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 96.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$42.86 | 62% 795-491 (1286) |
SH Sharky6999<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $94.06 | $96.33 | +$2.17 | 98% 6916-167 (7083) |
Invested
$17,665.9
Value
$19.0K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
66%
2460-1291 (3751)
Invested
$7,418.23
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$218.72
Record
49%
208-213 (421)
FacaieInvested
$2,878.85
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$3.38
Record
93%
1314-105 (1419)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$23.2
Record
76%
279-86 (365)
Invested
$1,179.08
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$42.86
Record
62%
795-491 (1286)
Invested
$94.06
Value
$96.33
PnL
+$2.17
Record
98%
6916-167 (7083)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.