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50
Consensus PnL $19K · win rate 95% (155–9, n=164) · PM monthly #334 · holds 9 consensus positions
0x50b66dc5...22ac9272Polymarket
⚖️Arb🎯Sharp🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$19.4K
Record
155W / 9L
Win Rate
95.0%
of 164 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#154
Source
PM monthly #334
Trades
129
Markets
406
Volume
$1.7M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 9 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 October 26-November 1?No $2.0K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 26-November 1?No $2.0K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 October 26-November 1?No $2.0K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 October 26-November 1?No $2.0K · now 100¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 October 26-November 1?No $2.0K · now 100¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1?No $2.0K · now 100¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 26-November 1?No $955 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 26-November 1?No $105 · now 100¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
Specialties
139 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 86¢- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 89% of 139 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 0% of 15)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 89%(won 100% of 124)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.