Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$2.3K
$390.35
44.6¢ → 59¢
+32% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
442h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CosmicCedar | Yesavg 56¢ | $915.45 | $997.68 | +$97.8 | 60% 798-532 (1330) |
 GUHHH | Yesavg 29.1¢ | $197.43 | $407.74 | +$210.31 | 78% 879-250 (1129) |
TH TheImpasse | Yesavg 30.8¢ | $197.68 | $372.04 | +$180.77 | 22% 145-528 (673) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR | Noavg 45.2¢ | $306.67 | $276.34 | -$28.19 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 62.8¢ | $248.31 | $156.28 | -$83.23 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
 cambridgeisaac<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $41.46 | $53.44 | +$12.9 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
CosmicCedarInvested
$915.45
Value
$997.68
PnL
+$97.8
Record
60%
798-532 (1330)
GUHHHInvested
$197.43
Value
$407.74
PnL
+$210.31
Record
78%
879-250 (1129)
Invested
$197.68
Value
$372.04
PnL
+$180.77
Record
22%
145-528 (673)
Invested
$306.67
Value
$276.34
PnL
-$28.19
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
Invested
$248.31
Value
$156.28
PnL
-$83.23
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
cambridgeisaac<$100Invested
$41.46
Value
$53.44
PnL
+$12.9
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.