Consensus PnL -$152K · win rate 21% (140–525, n=665) · was PM monthly #427 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-151.6K
Record
140W / 525L
Win Rate
21.0%
of 665 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2234
Source
PM monthly #427
Trades
147
Markets
700
Volume
$479.7K
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 19 on the consensus side (37%)- Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Yes $605 · now 41¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?No $508 · now 77¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (44% of 16)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $387 · now 6¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?Yes $372 · now 59¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?No $201 · now 74¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (40% of 10)
- Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?No $156 · now 77¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-21 House seat?No $142 · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-11 House seat?No $132 · now 93¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
Specialties
90 settled consensus markets · held side won 33% at an average entry of 34¢- Entertainment
+14 pts
side won 58% of 33 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +18%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 7% of 43 at an average 18¢ entry (−11 pts against the price), ROI −11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 67%(won 12% of 60)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 67% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 67% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 87% of 15)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.