Consensus PnL $63K · win rate 80% (661–162, n=823) · hand-picked wallet · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$63.0K
Record
661W / 162L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 823 settled
Batting Avg
62.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#434
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
17,504
Markets
1,213
Volume
$1.8M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 7 on the consensus side (86%)- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $1.4K · now 6¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (97% of 32)
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes $753 · now 56¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (58% of 19)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $633 · now 4¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
- Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?Yes $408 · now 59¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Yes $273 · now 55¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?No $165 · now 56¢ · in at 55¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No $2 · now 94¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (78% of 37)
Specialties
1,110 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 82¢- Mentions
+13 pts
side won 93% of 69 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +7%
- Entertainment
+6 pts
side won 85% of 413 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +7%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 90% of 155 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 70% of 10 at an average 84¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI −12%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 26% of 47)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 42% of 45)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 67% of 79)
- 70¢ and up: 85%(won 92% of 939)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.