Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$46.18

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,581

Combined PnL-$2.91

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.04

Total Shares2,083

Combined PnL-$43.27

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

398h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0.68	62% 1003-623 (1626)
SU SulkingCrypto	Noavg 98.8¢	$215.6	$212	-$3.6	— 1-9 (10)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$11.61	$0.45	-$11.16	17% 12-60 (72)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$18.86	$0.33	-$18.28	— 1-10 (11)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.98	$0.19	-$8.79	23% 510-1692 (2202)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$3.4	$0.05	-$3.35	41% 3010-4415 (7425)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$1.72	$0.02	-$1.69	— 0-12 (12)

PacersThreeandahalf

Invested

$1,367.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.68

Record

62%

1003-623 (1626)

SulkingCrypto

Invested

$215.6

Value

$212

PnL

-$3.6

Record

—

1-9 (10)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.61

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$11.16

Record

17%

12-60 (72)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.86

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$18.28

Record

—

1-10 (11)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.98

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$8.79

Record

23%

510-1692 (2202)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$3.35

Record

41%

3010-4415 (7425)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.72

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.69

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

398h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.