Will Florida Gators win the 2027 CFP National Championship?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 99¢ · $15K held · ends Jan 26, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Jan 26, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 14%

Total Value

$14.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares14,601

Combined PnL+$704.19

Yes6 traders

Total Value$421.59

Total Shares33,727

Combined PnL$-1.9K

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

728h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Noavg 93.9¢	$14.8K	$14.4K	+$704.19	52% 5893-5488 (11381)
MI milkteabobaCTR	Yes	$196.28	$196.28	+$85.42	68% 40-19 (59)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$41.63	$123.29	+$81.66	43% 468-621 (1089)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$27.52	$37.5	+$9.98	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
ND ndb1CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$3.0K	$32.77	$-1.4K	66% 910-479 (1389)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.5K	$25.5	-$731.92	45% 2377-2944 (5321)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yes	$6.25	$6.25	+$4.06	40% 2661-3920 (6581)

Nooserac

Invested

$14,817.94

Value

$14.4K

PnL

+$704.19

Record

52%

5893-5488 (11381)

milkteabobaCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.28

Value

$196.28

PnL

+$85.42

Record

68%

40-19 (59)

0x53eCc53E7CTR

Yes

Invested

$41.63

Value

$123.29

PnL

+$81.66

Record

43%

468-621 (1089)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.52

Value

$37.5

PnL

+$9.98

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

ndb1CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,037.4

Value

$32.77

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

66%

910-479 (1389)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,517.76

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$731.92

Record

45%

2377-2944 (5321)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.25

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$4.06

Record

40%

2661-3920 (6581)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

728h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.