Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 19, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$1.4K
-$212.42
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
318h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0.57 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
NY NyetRiskCTR | Yes | $185.07 | $185.07 | -$139.76 | 7% 14-187 (201) |
FL flawfenceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $62.91 | $28.19 | -$34.73 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $46.44 | $20.84 | -$25.67 | 47% 83-94 (177) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.15 | $10.11 | -$12.76 | 39% 1780-2832 (4612) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.46 | $1.53 | +$1.07 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$1,137.64
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0.57
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$185.07
Value
$185.07
PnL
-$139.76
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
Invested
$62.91
Value
$28.19
PnL
-$34.73
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$46.44
Value
$20.84
PnL
-$25.67
Record
47%
83-94 (177)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$10.11
PnL
-$12.76
Record
39%
1780-2832 (4612)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$1.53
PnL
+$1.07
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.