Will Gavin McKenna win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.3K
$636.37
70.2¢ → 82¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
179h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTS | Noavg 69.9¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$210.16 | 52% 6135-5765 (11900) |
CR crckrCTR | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $273.96 | $100.18 | +$379.57 | 31% 739-1614 (2353) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 76.5¢ | $183.59 | $88.52 | +$11.28 | 40% 6541-9819 (16360) |
NO northstockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $31.73 | $75.96 | +$44.22 | 40% 256-391 (647) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 77.2¢ | $570.66 | $1.05 | -$8.86 | 13% 532-3506 (4038) |
CUTJALENHURTSInvested
$1,803.11
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$210.16
Record
52%
6135-5765 (11900)
Invested
$273.96
Value
$100.18
PnL
+$379.57
Record
31%
739-1614 (2353)
HaradwaithInvested
$183.59
Value
$88.52
PnL
+$11.28
Record
40%
6541-9819 (16360)
Invested
$31.73
Value
$75.96
PnL
+$44.22
Record
40%
256-391 (647)
IstarothInvested
$570.66
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$8.86
Record
13%
532-3506 (4038)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.