Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $345 held · ends Nov 10

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$345.33

Combined PnL

$102.16

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 98.7¢

+15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$340.82

Total Shares342

Combined PnL+$14.59

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.5

Total Shares346

Combined PnL+$87.57

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 86.7¢	$294.31	$299.74	+$5.75	14% 503-3033 (3536)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 97¢	$29.1	$29.61	+$0.51	53% 8400-7487 (15887)
HU hugecaulk<$100	Noavg 27¢	$3.14	$11.47	+$8.33	46% 16-19 (35)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 25.3¢	$367.35	$3.66	+$87.82	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$73.09	$0.84	-$0.25	27% 6972-19073 (26045)

Istaroth

Invested

$294.31

Value

$299.74

PnL

+$5.75

Record

14%

503-3033 (3536)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$29.1

Value

$29.61

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

8400-7487 (15887)

hugecaulk<$100

Invested

$3.14

Value

$11.47

PnL

+$8.33

Record

46%

16-19 (35)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$367.35

Value

$3.66

PnL

+$87.82

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.09

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$0.25

Record

27%

6972-19073 (26045)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.