Consensus PnL -$9.8K · win rate 27% (3–8, n=11) · was PM monthly #842 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-9.8K
Record
3W / 8L
Win Rate
27.0%
of 11 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2224
Source
PM monthly #842
Trades
38
Markets
27
Volume
$13.9K
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 11 on the consensus side (0%)- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Yes $983 · now 7¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?No $630 · now 9¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No $420 · now 1¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?No $240 · now 2¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in November?Yes $225 · now 2¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?No $165 · now 1¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in November?Yes $117 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?No $89 · now 1¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
2 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 98¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where hugecaulk's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.