Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 77¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$7.0K
$-1.4K
83.3¢ → 77.3¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
708h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nooserac | Noavg 84¢ | $5.7K | $5.3K | -$449.13 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 79.7¢ | $5.0K | $1.1K | +$16.8 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $4.1K | $302 | -$947.49 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
CO cowcat | Noavg 82.9¢ | $245.59 | $226.2 | -$19.39 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $28.3 | $48.3 | +$20 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.7¢ | $31.66 | $43.54 | +$11.88 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
NooseracInvested
$5,716.2
Value
$5.3K
PnL
-$449.13
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
Invested
$5,041.06
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$16.8
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$4,139.92
Value
$302
PnL
-$947.49
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$245.59
Value
$226.2
PnL
-$19.39
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$28.3
Value
$48.3
PnL
+$20
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$31.66
Value
$43.54
PnL
+$11.88
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.