Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $253 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$252.73
$-3.5K
3.2¢ → 0.3¢
-92% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
23 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NY NyetRiskCTR | Yes | $169.6 | $169.6 | $-2.5K | 7% 14-187 (201) |
FL flawfenceCTR | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $1.0K | $71.09 | -$944.51 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $6.5 | $7.24 | +$0.75 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $48.56 | $3.01 | -$44.59 | 59% 3428-2336 (5764) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.78 | $0.78 | -$13 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $1.53 | $0.18 | +$0.23 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$169.6
Value
$169.6
PnL
$-2.5K
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
Invested
$1,015.6
Value
$71.09
PnL
-$944.51
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$7.24
PnL
+$0.75
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$48.56
Value
$3.01
PnL
-$44.59
Record
59%
3428-2336 (5764)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$0.78
PnL
-$13
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
Invested
$1.53
Value
$0.18
PnL
+$0.23
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.