Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$3.1K
-$211.08
63.1¢ → 95¢
+51% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
41 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZP Zptml | Noavg 63.2¢ | $1.9K | $2.9K | +$955.53 | 70% 32-14 (46) |
PU PutsOnPeace<$100 | Noavg 60.8¢ | $60.83 | $95.01 | +$34.18 | 66% 955-482 (1437) |
 BabyIBeenWatchingYouCTR | Yesavg 58¢ | $770.74 | $66.42 | -$704.3 | 65% 966-523 (1489) |
 XieGuangKunCTR | Yesavg 45.6¢ | $583.56 | $63.77 | -$519.79 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
DI Dimpled-Foal<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $34.46 | $52.8 | +$18.34 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.9¢ | $0 | $4.95 | +$4.95 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$1,896.16
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$955.53
Record
70%
32-14 (46)
Invested
$60.83
Value
$95.01
PnL
+$34.18
Record
66%
955-482 (1437)
BabyIBeenWatchingYouCTRInvested
$770.74
Value
$66.42
PnL
-$704.3
Record
65%
966-523 (1489)
XieGuangKunCTRInvested
$583.56
Value
$63.77
PnL
-$519.79
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
Invested
$34.46
Value
$52.8
PnL
+$18.34
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
Invested
$0
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$4.95
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.