Consensus PnL $17K · win rate 65% (603–331, n=934) · hand-picked wallet · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$16.6K
Record
603W / 331L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 934 settled
Batting Avg
67.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#924
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
20,894
Markets
1,559
Volume
$988.3K
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 10 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No $3.8K · now 96¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (81% of 31)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No $1.3K · now 95¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No $578 · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
- Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?No $525 · now 97¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?No $490 · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (85% of 13)
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?No $348 · now 98¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?Yes $149 · now 9¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?No $97 · now 97¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
Specialties
1,432 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 65¢- MMA
+9 pts
side won 62% of 89 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +5%
- Mentions
+5 pts
side won 78% of 147 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +8%
- Crypto
+6 pts
side won 72% of 106 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 33% of 24 at an average 54¢ entry (−21 pts against the price), ROI −22%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 30% of 67)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 41% of 193)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 60% of 610)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 87% of 562)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.