Consensus PnL $22K · win rate 70% (26–11, n=37) · PM monthly #131 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$22.5K
Record
26W / 11L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 37 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#763
Source
PM monthly #131
Trades
20
Markets
47
Volume
$284.3K
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 10 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $17K · now 87¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (26% of 23)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $10K · now 88¢ · in at 87¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $7.5K · now 90¢ · in at 94¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes $5.9K · now 82¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?No $2.9K · now 95¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $813 · now 81¢ · in at 73¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $393 · now 98¢ · in at 95¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $97 · now 97¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
Specialties
41 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 64¢- Crypto
+17 pts
side won 60% of 15 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +20%
- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 83% of 23 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 13% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 80% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 88% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 49%(won 95% of 20)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.