Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $26K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$26.1K
$4.8K
79.1¢ → 97.9¢
+24% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
4876h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM amis | Noavg 75.1¢ | $13.4K | $17.4K | +$4.1K | 88% 249-34 (283) |
PH phdcapital | Noavg 84.6¢ | $4.7K | $5.5K | +$742.38 | 94% 259-17 (276) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 91.9¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$125.83 | 76% 11357-3525 (14882) |
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 91.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$74.63 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
 XAE12ArchangelCTR | Yesavg 65.8¢ | $173.94 | $5.72 | -$168.22 | 66% 784-407 (1191) |
LA Lasting-Dessert<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $4.8 | $4.89 | +$0.09 | 89% 563-67 (630) |
Invested
$13,357.35
Value
$17.4K
PnL
+$4.1K
Record
88%
249-34 (283)
Invested
$4,731.85
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$742.38
Record
94%
259-17 (276)
Invested
$1,805.59
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$125.83
Record
76%
11357-3525 (14882)
DEGENKHANInvested
$1,122.12
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$74.63
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
XAE12ArchangelCTRInvested
$173.94
Value
$5.72
PnL
-$168.22
Record
66%
784-407 (1191)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.89
PnL
+$0.09
Record
89%
563-67 (630)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.