Consensus PnL $62K · win rate 89% (92–11, n=103) · hand-picked wallet · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$61.9K
Record
92W / 11L
Win Rate
89.0%
of 103 settled
Batting Avg
65.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#256
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
7,672
Markets
309
Volume
$3.3M
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 14 on the consensus side (93%)- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?No $34K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (85% of 13)
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No $33K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?No $31K · now 97¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?No $21K · now 99¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No $18K · now 93¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (77% of 26)
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?No $17K · now 98¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?No $16K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?No $11K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
Specialties
276 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 94¢- Crypto
+5 pts
side won 99% of 158 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +2%
- Finance
+2 pts
side won 98% of 82 · avg entry 95¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 86% of 7)
- 70¢ and up: 97%(won 99% of 267)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.