Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $17K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$16.6K
$606.99
93.1¢ → 96.7¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
689h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM amis | Noavg 93.2¢ | $10.3K | $10.7K | +$381.19 | 88% 249-34 (283) |
OE oegdatam | Noavg 95¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$58.38 | 87% 149-22 (171) |
LA Lasting-Dessert | Noavg 91¢ | $736.04 | $781.73 | +$45.7 | 89% 563-67 (630) |
DF DFV2 | Noavg 91.8¢ | $740.41 | $772.61 | +$32.2 | 91% 198-19 (217) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 93.8¢ | $613.88 | $632.46 | +$18.58 | 76% 11358-3527 (14885) |
PH phdcapital | Noavg 81¢ | $366.52 | $437.46 | +$70.94 | 94% 259-17 (276) |
Invested
$10,299.39
Value
$10.7K
PnL
+$381.19
Record
88%
249-34 (283)
Invested
$3,264.75
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$58.38
Record
87%
149-22 (171)
Invested
$736.04
Value
$781.73
PnL
+$45.7
Record
89%
563-67 (630)
Invested
$740.41
Value
$772.61
PnL
+$32.2
Record
91%
198-19 (217)
Invested
$613.88
Value
$632.46
PnL
+$18.58
Record
76%
11358-3527 (14885)
Invested
$366.52
Value
$437.46
PnL
+$70.94
Record
94%
259-17 (276)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.