Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$3.6K
$34.19
96.6¢ → 98.2¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR Krass | Noavg 96.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$27.53 | 74% 452-155 (607) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 98¢ | $764.96 | $766.67 | +$1.32 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 Car | Noavg 96.2¢ | $726.04 | $741.38 | +$14.96 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 Slowroasted | Noavg 95.9¢ | $644.91 | $613.51 | +$14.06 | 88% 1990-279 (2269) |
 StudyPrediction<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $98 | $98.2 | +$0.15 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $49.39 | $25.56 | -$23.82 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
Invested
$1,386.15
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$27.53
Record
74%
452-155 (607)
Invested
$764.96
Value
$766.67
PnL
+$1.32
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
CarInvested
$726.04
Value
$741.38
PnL
+$14.96
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
SlowroastedInvested
$644.91
Value
$613.51
PnL
+$14.06
Record
88%
1990-279 (2269)
StudyPrediction<$100Invested
$98
Value
$98.2
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$49.39
Value
$25.56
PnL
-$23.82
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.