Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$4.7K
$402.76
87.3¢ → 95.3¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
4205h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Yesavg 90.3¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | +$128.19 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 4751346 | Yesavg 80.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$231.09 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
 Socialista | Yesavg 94¢ | $523.76 | $531.91 | +$8.16 | 63% 2725-1611 (4336) |
 wish- | Yesavg 90.8¢ | $230.72 | $242.54 | +$11.82 | 79% 1176-319 (1495) |
 siick<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $56.71 | $83.27 | +$26.56 | 57% 768-580 (1348) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Noavg 7.5¢ | $8.62 | $5.07 | -$3.07 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
elmcap2Invested
$2,500
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$128.19
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
4751346Invested
$1,255.91
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$231.09
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
SocialistaInvested
$523.76
Value
$531.91
PnL
+$8.16
Record
63%
2725-1611 (4336)
wish-Invested
$230.72
Value
$242.54
PnL
+$11.82
Record
79%
1176-319 (1495)
siick<$100Invested
$56.71
Value
$83.27
PnL
+$26.56
Record
57%
768-580 (1348)
Invested
$8.62
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$3.07
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.