Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the highest-scoring RB of the 2026-27 NFL season?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 67¢ · $845 held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$844.72

Combined PnL

$67.91

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 67¢

+29% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$755.27

Total Shares1,069

Combined PnL+$188.44

No4 traders

Total Value$89.46

Total Shares327

Combined PnL-$120.52

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

541h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH ChuDebbieSharp	Yesavg 56.2¢	$451.3	$484.05	+$123.09	52% 171-156 (327)
Hyperlong	Yes	$181.8	$181.8	+$48.75	43% 234-314 (548)
DEGENKHAN<$100	Yesavg 29.8¢	$72.82	$89.42	+$16.59	66% 1108-565 (1673)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 45.8¢	$204.48	$61.51	-$94.72	17% 402-2021 (2423)
JustADonkCTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$29.5	$13.75	-$15.75	55% 912-754 (1666)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$14	$7.7	-$6.3	66% 910-479 (1389)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$11	$6.5	-$3.75	16% 247-1265 (1512)

ChuDebbieSharp

Yes

Invested

$451.3

Value

$484.05

PnL

+$123.09

Record

52%

171-156 (327)

Hyperlong

Yes

Invested

$181.8

Value

$181.8

PnL

+$48.75

Record

43%

234-314 (548)

DEGENKHAN<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.82

Value

$89.42

PnL

+$16.59

Record

66%

1108-565 (1673)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$204.48

Value

$61.51

PnL

-$94.72

Record

17%

402-2021 (2423)

JustADonkCTR<$100

Invested

$29.5

Value

$13.75

PnL

-$15.75

Record

55%

912-754 (1666)

ndb1CTR<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$6.3

Record

66%

910-479 (1389)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$3.75

Record

16%

247-1265 (1512)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

541h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.