Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 92¢ · $638 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 33%
$637.69
$72.78
65.8¢ → 91.5¢
+39% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
816h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
8 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gohst | Noavg 57¢ | $210.99 | $338.69 | +$127.7 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
 GonTanaka | Noavg 78.2¢ | $205.31 | $240.23 | +$34.92 | 57% 173-128 (301) |
LI lissartterCTR | Yesavg 21.2¢ | $123.12 | $49.62 | -$73.5 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $24.11 | $8.59 | -$15.52 | 57% 2537-1923 (4460) |
 fireponbabylonCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $1.35 | $0.43 | -$0.93 | 43% 370-481 (851) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.03 | $0.14 | +$0.1 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
GohstInvested
$210.99
Value
$338.69
PnL
+$127.7
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
GonTanakaInvested
$205.31
Value
$240.23
PnL
+$34.92
Record
57%
173-128 (301)
Invested
$123.12
Value
$49.62
PnL
-$73.5
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$24.11
Value
$8.59
PnL
-$15.52
Record
57%
2537-1923 (4460)
fireponbabylonCTR<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
$0.43
PnL
-$0.93
Record
43%
370-481 (851)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.14
PnL
+$0.1
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.