Consensus PnL -$45K · win rate 36% (175–312, n=487) · hand-picked wallet · holds 23 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-45.4K
Record
175W / 312L
Win Rate
36.0%
of 487 settled
Batting Avg
61.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2146
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
55,992
Markets
1,045
Volume
$6.4M
Top consensus positions
23 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 23 on the consensus side (65%)- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?No $1.3K · now 92¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $247 · now 1¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (96% of 24)
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes $85 · now 2¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?No $29 · now 94¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?No $26 · now 96¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $24 · now 15¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (88% of 33)
- US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Yes $22 · now 17¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?Yes $19 · now 5¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
444 settled consensus markets · held side won 32% at an average entry of 29¢- Geopolitics
+18 pts
side won 70% of 54 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +5%
- Economy
+4 pts
side won 20% of 25 · avg entry 16¢
ROI −3%
- Entertainment
+7 pts
side won 50% of 44 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 11% of 169 at an average 13¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 64%(won 4% of 284)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 48% of 33)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 77% of 35)
- 70¢ and up: 21%(won 97% of 92)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.