Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 42¢ · $974 held · ends Jan 22, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$973.87
$317.72
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
314h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasiteCTR | Yes | $468.04 | $468.04 | +$222.44 | 55% 463-373 (836) |
 clazzy1 | Noavg 34.6¢ | $155.76 | $263.25 | +$107.49 | 62% 413-249 (662) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 29.6¢ | $65.13 | $128.85 | +$63.71 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR | Yesavg 70.2¢ | $189.29 | $109.78 | -$76 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $2.73 | $2.73 | +$0 | 51% 2516-2391 (4907) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 54.9¢ | $1.14 | $1.22 | +$0.08 | 52% 5046-4713 (9759) |
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$468.04
Value
$468.04
PnL
+$222.44
Record
55%
463-373 (836)
clazzy1Invested
$155.76
Value
$263.25
PnL
+$107.49
Record
62%
413-249 (662)
Invested
$65.13
Value
$128.85
PnL
+$63.71
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$189.29
Value
$109.78
PnL
-$76
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$2.73
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
2516-2391 (4907)
Invested
$1.14
Value
$1.22
PnL
+$0.08
Record
52%
5046-4713 (9759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.