Consensus PnL $49K · win rate 65% (183–97, n=280) · was PM monthly #881 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$49.1K
Record
183W / 97L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 280 settled
Batting Avg
46.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#935
Source
PM monthly #881
Trades
471
Markets
406
Volume
$244.4K
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 12 on the consensus side (58%)- Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?No $5.1K · now 98¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Yes $3.6K · now 26¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
- US military draft authorized in 2026?No $3.3K · now 97¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?No $2.1K · now 96¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?No $1.7K · now 59¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (57% of 15)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 71¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- No one announced as next James Bond?Yes $700 · now 17¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?Yes $308 · now 90¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
Specialties
300 settled consensus markets · held side won 54% at an average entry of 45¢- Mentions
+44 pts
side won 96% of 25 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +21%
- Elections
+7 pts
side won 56% of 97 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +9%
- Soccer
+11 pts
side won 57% of 30 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 37%(won 19% of 110)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 57% of 63)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 63% of 52)
- 70¢ and up: 25%(won 95% of 75)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.