Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 76¢ · $2K held · ended Aug 19
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.5K
$121
68¢ → 75.6¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
269h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 seal7 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$144.95 | 49% 287-300 (587) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.2¢ | $62.84 | $38.33 | -$24.51 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 56.9¢ | $6.69 | $8.87 | +$2.19 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $3.78 | +$0.18 | 50% 7972-8009 (15981) |
 GonTanakaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.9¢ | $4.83 | $2.69 | -$2.13 | 57% 173-128 (301) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 59.3¢ | $1.22 | $1.55 | +$0.33 | 51% 2516-2391 (4907) |
seal7Invested
$1,335.85
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$144.95
Record
49%
287-300 (587)
Invested
$62.84
Value
$38.33
PnL
-$24.51
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$6.69
Value
$8.87
PnL
+$2.19
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.78
PnL
+$0.18
Record
50%
7972-8009 (15981)
GonTanakaCTR<$100Invested
$4.83
Value
$2.69
PnL
-$2.13
Record
57%
173-128 (301)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0.33
Record
51%
2516-2391 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.