Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$11.3K
$1.1K
86.5¢ → 96¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
710h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST StudentMoney | Noavg 86.1¢ | $8.3K | $9.2K | +$953.83 | 71% 828-343 (1171) |
 nicoco89 | Noavg 87.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$151.85 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
 TBill1 | Noavg 93¢ | $279 | $287.85 | +$9 | 45% 154-188 (342) |
PL plumbis<$100 | Noavg 84.1¢ | $84.1 | $95.95 | +$11.9 | 57% 51-39 (90) |
 Donny.T<$100 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $39.58 | $40.29 | +$0.72 | 72% 484-187 (671) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $9.62 | $20.25 | +$10.63 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
Invested
$8,287.04
Value
$9.2K
PnL
+$953.83
Record
71%
828-343 (1171)
nicoco89Invested
$1,515.2
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$151.85
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
TBill1Invested
$279
Value
$287.85
PnL
+$9
Record
45%
154-188 (342)
Invested
$84.1
Value
$95.95
PnL
+$11.9
Record
57%
51-39 (90)
Donny.T<$100Invested
$39.58
Value
$40.29
PnL
+$0.72
Record
72%
484-187 (671)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$9.62
Value
$20.25
PnL
+$10.63
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.