Consensus PnL -$20K · win rate 75% (851–286, n=1137) · was PM monthly #697 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-19.6K
Record
851W / 286L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 1137 settled
Batting Avg
55.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#566
Source
PM monthly #697
Trades
2,316
Markets
1,436
Volume
$6.0M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 12 on the consensus side (92%)- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $85K · now 86¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (87% of 47)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $29K · now 40¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (83% of 42)
- Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?No $9.2K · now 96¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No $7.2K · now 92¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (64% of 34)
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $5.6K · now 12¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (84% of 20)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $3.4K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (83% of 48)
- Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?No $1.9K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 18)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (94% of 47)
Specialties
1,193 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 73¢- Elections
+8 pts
side won 80% of 196 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +3%
- Tennis
+6 pts
side won 73% of 191 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +4%
- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 71% of 266 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 82% of 191 at an average 83¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 10% of 102)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 48% of 112)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 63% of 212)
- 70¢ and up: 64%(won 92% of 767)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.