Consensus PnL $82K · win rate 55% (1412–1149, n=2561) · PM monthly #350 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$81.9K
Record
1412W / 1149L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 2561 settled
Batting Avg
53.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1439
Source
PM monthly #350 + pinned
Trades
101,326
Markets
5,929
Volume
$10.5M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?No $1.7K · now 85¢ · in at 83¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?No $1.2K · now 78¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (38% of 13)
- Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?Yes $155 · now 2¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?Yes $2 · now 3¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
2,991 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 53¢- Esports
+2 pts
side won 55% of 2232 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +1%
- NFL
+11 pts
side won 62% of 63 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +4%
- College Basketball
+6 pts
side won 49% of 45 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 50% of 126 at an average 51¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 22% of 313)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 46% of 1024)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 61% of 1105)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 78% of 549)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.