Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$2.8K
$826.88
44¢ → 97.2¢
+121% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
302 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKen | Yesavg 28.1¢ | $848.41 | $1.9K | +$633.59 | 53% 3037-2716 (5753) |
PA pako | Yesavg 84.3¢ | $530.97 | $559.26 | +$71.53 | 65% 250-132 (382) |
 mombil | Yesavg 77¢ | $102.75 | $214.45 | +$71.17 | 55% 1191-966 (2157) |
11 11122<$100 | Yesavg 66.1¢ | $42.52 | $62.47 | +$19.95 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
 flow-trader-at-optiver<$100 | Yesavg 28.6¢ | $0 | $20.08 | +$20.08 | 39% 965-1508 (2473) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $0 | $10.57 | +$10.57 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
ImJustKenInvested
$848.41
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$633.59
Record
53%
3037-2716 (5753)
Invested
$530.97
Value
$559.26
PnL
+$71.53
Record
65%
250-132 (382)
mombilInvested
$102.75
Value
$214.45
PnL
+$71.17
Record
55%
1191-966 (2157)
Invested
$42.52
Value
$62.47
PnL
+$19.95
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
flow-trader-at-optiver<$100Invested
$0
Value
$20.08
PnL
+$20.08
Record
39%
965-1508 (2473)
Invested
$0
Value
$10.57
PnL
+$10.57
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.