Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 94¢ · $535 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$534.94
-$63.49
87.8¢ → 93.8¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Slowroasted | Noavg 93.1¢ | $286.26 | $283.55 | -$2.71 | 88% 1990-279 (2269) |
CO cowcat | Noavg 78.2¢ | $128.21 | $151.21 | +$23 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $59.42 | $65.24 | +$4.99 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $26.75 | $20.87 | -$6.02 | 57% 2537-1923 (4460) |
 4751346CTR<$100 | Yesavg 57.4¢ | $96.24 | $12.82 | -$83.42 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 31.8¢ | $0.36 | $1.04 | +$0.68 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
SlowroastedInvested
$286.26
Value
$283.55
PnL
-$2.71
Record
88%
1990-279 (2269)
Invested
$128.21
Value
$151.21
PnL
+$23
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$59.42
Value
$65.24
PnL
+$4.99
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$26.75
Value
$20.87
PnL
-$6.02
Record
57%
2537-1923 (4460)
4751346CTR<$100Invested
$96.24
Value
$12.82
PnL
-$83.42
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
Invested
$0.36
Value
$1.04
PnL
+$0.68
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.