Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 75¢ · $3K held · ended Aug 19
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$3.2K
$710.69
52.1¢ → 74.5¢
+43% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
647h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
21 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 seal7 | Yesavg 52.2¢ | $1.9K | $2.4K | +$515.39 | 49% 287-300 (587) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Yesavg 52¢ | $0.29 | $718.04 | +$251.39 | 73% 3600-1329 (4929) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.1¢ | $98.37 | $55.86 | -$42.51 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.2¢ | $29.34 | $22.15 | -$7.2 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
 bernardbulletinCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $27.1 | $21.42 | -$4.81 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $5.25 | $3.68 | -$1.58 | 50% 7972-8009 (15981) |
seal7Invested
$1,903
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$515.39
Record
49%
287-300 (587)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$718.04
PnL
+$251.39
Record
73%
3600-1329 (4929)
Invested
$98.37
Value
$55.86
PnL
-$42.51
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$29.34
Value
$22.15
PnL
-$7.2
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100Invested
$27.1
Value
$21.42
PnL
-$4.81
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$3.68
PnL
-$1.58
Record
50%
7972-8009 (15981)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.