Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 96¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 24
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$17.1K
$7.0K
55.9¢ → 96.2¢
+72% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
705h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
27 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mrworldwide | Yesavg 51.7¢ | $8.7K | $15.1K | +$6.9K | 69% 804-359 (1163) |
MA Marioy | Yesavg 91¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$69.27 | 81% 250-58 (308) |
AP apmt | Yesavg 78.5¢ | $314 | $390 | +$68 | 74% 64-22 (86) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438 | Yesavg 61.9¢ | $87.77 | $111.38 | +$23.61 | 50% 357-357 (714) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $42.18 | $4.99 | -$37.74 | 54% 1249-1044 (2293) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Yesavg 85¢ | $4.25 | $4.87 | +$0.54 | 50% 7972-8009 (15981) |
mrworldwideInvested
$8,672.55
Value
$15.1K
PnL
+$6.9K
Record
69%
804-359 (1163)
Invested
$1,400.79
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$69.27
Record
81%
250-58 (308)
Invested
$314
Value
$390
PnL
+$68
Record
74%
64-22 (86)
Invested
$87.77
Value
$111.38
PnL
+$23.61
Record
50%
357-357 (714)
Invested
$42.18
Value
$4.99
PnL
-$37.74
Record
54%
1249-1044 (2293)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$4.87
PnL
+$0.54
Record
50%
7972-8009 (15981)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.