Consensus PnL $79K · win rate 76% (61–19, n=80) · was PM monthly #930 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$79.3K
Record
61W / 19L
Win Rate
76.0%
of 80 settled
Batting Avg
36.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#556
Source
PM monthly #930
Trades
362
Markets
128
Volume
$751.1K
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 19 on the consensus side (100%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $35K · now 89¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $30K · now 95¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No $20K · now 92¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (64% of 34)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $18K · now 65¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $16K · now 84¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $13K · now 82¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (50% of 48)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $13K · now 71¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No $13K · now 89¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (55% of 38)
Specialties
89 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 76¢- Geopolitics
+13 pts
side won 87% of 39 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +12%
- Politics
+18 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +9%
- Elections
+9 pts
side won 82% of 22 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +9%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 50% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 50% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 67% of 12)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 97% of 69)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.