Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 54¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2030
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$5.8K
$568.28
45.2¢ → 53.5¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
109h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PK pkz | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $2.6K | $3.1K | +$505.77 | 58% 469-346 (815) |
CR Crock95CTR | Noavg 45.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$55.69 | 57% 255-194 (449) |
 archaicCTR | Noavg 46¢ | $394.17 | $411.31 | +$8.57 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
ME melonmanm | Yesavg 49¢ | $327.77 | $354.68 | +$30.26 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR | Noavg 52.2¢ | $224 | $192 | -$32 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $6.85 | $6.85 | +$0 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Invested
$2,575.02
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$505.77
Record
58%
469-346 (815)
Invested
$1,730.31
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$55.69
Record
57%
255-194 (449)
archaicCTRInvested
$394.17
Value
$411.31
PnL
+$8.57
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
Invested
$327.77
Value
$354.68
PnL
+$30.26
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTRInvested
$224
Value
$192
PnL
-$32
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$6.85
Value
$6.85
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.