Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 82¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$5.4K
$2.6K
89.1¢ → 82¢
-8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
700h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI milkteabobaCTR | Yesavg 12.2¢ | $101.26 | $2.8K | +$2.7K | 69% 38-17 (55) |
 Nooserac | Noavg 91.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$160.3 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
 JustADonk | Noavg 86.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$63.07 | 55% 900-743 (1643) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $40.91 | $68.36 | +$27.45 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.9¢ | $19.15 | $39.85 | +$20.7 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.51 | $8.9 | +$8.33 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
Invested
$101.26
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
69%
38-17 (55)
NooseracInvested
$1,527.56
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$160.3
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
JustADonkInvested
$1,142.53
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$63.07
Record
55%
900-743 (1643)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$40.91
Value
$68.36
PnL
+$27.45
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$19.15
Value
$39.85
PnL
+$20.7
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$8.9
PnL
+$8.33
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.