Will Mississippi Rebels win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 13%
$3.1K
$1.7K
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DavidShekel | Noavg 93.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$631.36 | 58% 574-408 (982) |
MI milkteabobaCTR | Yes | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$687.87 | 68% 41-19 (60) |
ND ndb1CTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $45.29 | $268.25 | +$222.96 | 66% 918-479 (1397) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $27.52 | $136.5 | +$108.98 | 54% 21867-18991 (40858) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $18.89 | $84.49 | +$65.6 | 53% 1578-1414 (2992) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $3.81 | $18.92 | +$15.1 | 74% 12150-4326 (16476) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.33 | $1.49 | +$1.16 | 51% 2116-2028 (4144) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.23 | $1.14 | +$0.91 | 36% 1962-3489 (5451) |
DavidShekelInvested
$1,495.6
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$631.36
Record
58%
574-408 (982)
Invested
$1,080.18
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$687.87
Record
68%
41-19 (60)
Invested
$45.29
Value
$268.25
PnL
+$222.96
Record
66%
918-479 (1397)
Invested
$27.52
Value
$136.5
PnL
+$108.98
Record
54%
21867-18991 (40858)
Invested
$18.89
Value
$84.49
PnL
+$65.6
Record
53%
1578-1414 (2992)
Invested
$3.81
Value
$18.92
PnL
+$15.1
Record
74%
12150-4326 (16476)
Invested
$0.33
Value
$1.49
PnL
+$1.16
Record
51%
2116-2028 (4144)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$1.14
PnL
+$0.91
Record
36%
1962-3489 (5451)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.