Will Myrwn have the most kills at Worlds 2026?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $220 held · ends Dec 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$220.2

Combined PnL

-$2.51

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$220.05

Total Shares220

Combined PnL+$0.23

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.15

Total Shares304

Combined PnL-$2.73

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

110h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HomelessnHoeless	Noavg 99.8¢	$220.16	$220.05	+$0.23	—
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.29	$0.07	-$1.22	—
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.75	$0.04	-$0.72	—
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.56	$0.03	-$0.53	—
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.29	$0.02	-$0.27	—

HomelessnHoeless

Invested

$220.16

Value

$220.05

PnL

+$0.23

Record

—

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.29

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.22

Record

—

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.72

Record

—

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.53

Record

—

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.27

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

110h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.