Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 77¢ · $876 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$876.13

Combined PnL

$18.98

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 77.1¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$700.4

Total Shares880

Combined PnL-$44.28

Yes3 traders

Total Value$175.72

Total Shares859

Combined PnL+$63.26

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4805h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

22 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 91.5¢	$464.04	$379.33	-$56.97	53% 2255-1981 (4236)
probability	Noavg 74.4¢	$267.82	$286.38	+$18.74	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 16.3¢	$85.88	$107.79	+$21.65	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$63.4	$45.07	+$19.33	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 88.8¢	$73.37	$34.69	-$6.05	76% 11358-3527 (14885)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.53	$22.87	+$22.28	18% 3833-17382 (21215)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$464.04

Value

$379.33

PnL

-$56.97

Record

53%

2255-1981 (4236)

probability

Invested

$267.82

Value

$286.38

PnL

+$18.74

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$85.88

Value

$107.79

PnL

+$21.65

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.4

Value

$45.07

PnL

+$19.33

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$73.37

Value

$34.69

PnL

-$6.05

Record

76%

11358-3527 (14885)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$22.87

PnL

+$22.28

Record

18%

3833-17382 (21215)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4805h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

22 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.0%

77.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.