Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.4K
-$14.6
92.3¢ → 91.1¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV aviato | Noavg 92.1¢ | $725.61 | $718.73 | -$6.88 | 84% 2440-449 (2889) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 89.9¢ | $325.88 | $331.89 | +$6 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
 flow-trader-at-optiver | Noavg 96.2¢ | $275.1 | $261.03 | -$14.06 | 39% 965-1508 (2473) |
 paddaa | Noavg 91.9¢ | $127.17 | $121.96 | -$5.22 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $8.29 | $14.51 | +$6.22 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.53 | $0.53 | -$0.68 | 53% 3726-3240 (6966) |
Invested
$725.61
Value
$718.73
PnL
-$6.88
Record
84%
2440-449 (2889)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$325.88
Value
$331.89
PnL
+$6
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
flow-trader-at-optiverInvested
$275.1
Value
$261.03
PnL
-$14.06
Record
39%
965-1508 (2473)
paddaaInvested
$127.17
Value
$121.96
PnL
-$5.22
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
Invested
$8.29
Value
$14.51
PnL
+$6.22
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
Invested
$0.53
Value
$0.53
PnL
-$0.68
Record
53%
3726-3240 (6966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.