Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$1.4K
$492.69
35.6¢ → 63¢
+77% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
23 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cad | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $196.53 | $649.12 | +$457.62 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
PA pako | Yesavg 57.8¢ | $387.6 | $361.9 | +$71.46 | 65% 250-132 (382) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 48.3¢ | $194.89 | $169.12 | -$25.78 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
 TBill1 | Yesavg 58¢ | $109.28 | $121.53 | +$12.25 | 45% 154-188 (342) |
SI simplemanCTR | Noavg 50.2¢ | $108.87 | $77.01 | -$31.85 | 47% 456-520 (976) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $14.4 | $23.22 | +$9 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$196.53
Value
$649.12
PnL
+$457.62
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
Invested
$387.6
Value
$361.9
PnL
+$71.46
Record
65%
250-132 (382)
Invested
$194.89
Value
$169.12
PnL
-$25.78
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
TBill1Invested
$109.28
Value
$121.53
PnL
+$12.25
Record
45%
154-188 (342)
Invested
$108.87
Value
$77.01
PnL
-$31.85
Record
47%
456-520 (976)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$23.22
PnL
+$9
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.