Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $180 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$179.75
$-5.1K
3.1¢ → 0.1¢
-95% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
663h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
12 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NY NyetRiskCTR | Yes | $129.15 | $129.15 | $-4.0K | 7% 14-187 (201) |
FL flawfenceCTR | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $1.0K | $42.66 | -$972.95 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $29.58 | $3.63 | -$16.76 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
RA ratedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $50.69 | $1.87 | -$61.43 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $48.56 | $1.5 | -$46.09 | 59% 3428-2336 (5764) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $11.05 | $0.95 | +$1.42 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$129.15
Value
$129.15
PnL
$-4.0K
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
Invested
$1,015.6
Value
$42.66
PnL
-$972.95
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$29.58
Value
$3.63
PnL
-$16.76
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$50.69
Value
$1.87
PnL
-$61.43
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
Invested
$48.56
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$46.09
Record
59%
3428-2336 (5764)
Invested
$11.05
Value
$0.95
PnL
+$1.42
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.